Spot Silicon Metal Low-Price Center Slightly Edged Up, Focus on Market Trading Sentiment [SMM Silicon Industry Weekly Review]

SMM Oct. 30: Silicon Metal: Spot silicon metal prices rose slightly WoW. As of Oct. 30, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW; #441 silicon was at 9,600-9,700 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW; #421 silicon (used in silicone) was at 9,800-10,200 yuan/mt, flat WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded SI2601 contract fluctuated upward, with a weekly high of 9,295 yuan/mt and a low of 8,930 yuan/mt. It closed at 9,155 yuan/mt on Thursday, up 235 yuan/mt from last Friday. On trading, recent strength in futures prices, coupled with the contract rollover, led trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market to offer at notably higher absolute prices than before. Some silicon enterprises quoted with small fluctuations, showing price advantages. Downstream purchasing sentiment to drive down prices persisted, and the market traded on demand.

Demand side, polysilicon production decreased slightly WoW. In November, polysilicon operating rates showed production cuts in south China and increases in the north; the total production schedule is expected to decrease MoM from October, but still supports silicon metal demand. Silicone production was basically stable WoW, and its November operating rates were largely stable. Aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises maintained stable operating rates, while increases in some secondary aluminum alloy operating rates were still constrained by tight aluminum scrap supply.

Supply side, operating rates of silicon enterprises diverged between north and south China. The north saw sporadic increases this week, but most enterprises maintained stable rates. In the south, Sichuan and Yunnan enterprises are about to enter parity or dry season. Yunnan's electricity prices are expected to rise by 0.13 yuan/kWh in November, pushing direct power costs up by over 1,400 yuan/mt. With low silicon metal prices widening losses, regional operating rates dropped. Only integrated enterprises or those with long-term contract delivery needs are expected to remain operating in November. Some Sichuan enterprises cut or halted production at month-end October, and others will do so at month-end November, leading to a MoM decrease in total silicon metal production in November.

Overall, both supply and demand decreased in November, and fundamentals improved MoM from October. However, no supply gap emerged in the structure. Spot and futures prices were highly correlated. The spot price center rose slightly this week, but market sentiment has not fully reversed. Spot prices mainly fluctuated rangebound, with attention on downstream purchasing mentality.

Polysilicon: The polysilicon price index was 52.04 yuan/kg this week. N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 49.6-55 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon at 50-51 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices dropped slightly, as earlier price reductions by a few manufacturers combined with weakening downstream prices led to overall weak market sentiment. This week, industry conferences were held again, focusing mainly on discussions related to the high-quality development of PV in 2026. Meanwhile, with the mid-month meetings concluded, market attention has shifted to the follow-up progress of polysilicon platforms.

Wafer: Overall wafer prices dropped slightly this week, with N-type 183 wafer prices at 1.33-1.35 yuan/piece, 210R wafer offers at 1.33-1.38 yuan/piece, and 210mm wafer offers at 1.68-1.7 yuan/piece. The price decline was mainly due to two factors: first, as the month-end and third-quarter report release period approached, some enterprises under performance pressure chose to reduce prices to boost shipments; second, after overseas battery demand faded, the volume of external toll processing for wafers decreased, and weakening demand led to price reductions through transmission. It is worth noting that in November, enterprises in several major PV production areas, including Ningxia, Yunnan, and Zhejiang Province, have received notifications. Affected by this news, multiple companies have confirmed production cut plans for the next month, so wafer production schedules in November are expected to decrease accordingly.
 

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